Our thoughts on the indie watch market
Read time: 5 min
For the last decade, we’ve witnessed massive growth in the watch market. Today, there are more independent watchmakers than ever. The world over, talent and creative ideas spring out of places far from the traditional watchmaking centers of Switzerland and Germany.
With the rise in popularity of independent watchmaking though, we’ve seen a series of knock-on effects that directly impact the market and the experience of collectors – wait times on delivery can be years, resale and auction prices regularly shatter records, and value-mindedness is central in deciding on what to purchase. Given both the financialization of watches and global market tumult in recent years, it should come as no surprise that we’re often asked, “what’s the state of the indie watch market today and where are things going?”
Today, we’re laying out our thoughts on the status of the indie watch market – what we expected, where the market is now, and where it’s headed.
What we expected for the watch market
About 18-24 months ago, sentiment in the indie watch market began to shift. After a decade of massive growth (in nearly every regard), the idea that watch prices would continue to appreciate came to a grinding halt. While there were plenty of collectors, enthusiasts, writers, dealers that predicted an eventual fall, it was the economic chaos caused by COVID and fast-rising inflation that converted niche skepticisms into more mainstream perceptions. In an increasingly interconnected world, the watch market is by no means immune from the general economic climate. When things are booming, the watch market tends to boom, and the inverse is equally true.
On the level of independent watchmaking, there was much discussion about the impact of cooler markets. Would collectors start pulling deposits? Would wait lists shrink? Will supply chains be hit hard by the global logistics chaos or due to energy issues? Doomsdayers wondered if this upcoming period may see an industry-wide collapse comparable to the Quartz Crisis. These were questions that bounced around, especially throughout the pandemic.
Three years removed from the onset of whatever this economic period will be called by future historians, answers to these questions have become more clear.
Where the watch market is today
We’ll say it upfront, the market is cooler than it was in previous years. Compared to 2021 and 2022, we have seen wait lists shrink (not to an overwhelming degree) and there is certainly more supply available in the secondary market. Talk to any independent and they are bound to tell you that the supplier troubles are real and planned timelines are delayed. We’ve seen prices drop from their all-time high’s. This is far from an Armageddon event though. At least so far, this is something more akin to a gradual slowdown than anything cataclysmic.
The fallout of this gradual slowdown is broadly a good one for indie collectors. Things have shifted from a seller’s market to something much more balanced. From our vantage point, there is an exodus of speculators in this space. A bit of self-fulfilling prophecy, the perception that the watch market will crash halts the “investors” in their place. This clears the way for others on wait lists, more exceptional indie timepieces available, and timepieces are slightly easier to access in terms of price.
With the gradual slowdown, the auction houses have reverted back to principle – rare and exceptional timepieces continue to sell at exorbitant prices; unworn, serially-produced timepieces have come down from their multipliers on retail. They (auction houses) have certainly focused on building higher quality catalogs than ever before, and the results follow suit. Just recently, Christie’s shared that this is the highest first-half results worldwide with ~$125m in total sales. The market may have shifted somewhat, but as of now, it is far from slumping.
Where the watch market is headed
When we take a look around and try to assess the indie market’s future, one thing is abundantly clear: independent watchmaking is in a radically different position than it was a decade ago. Many popular indies were much smaller than today – a few dropped deposits could bend the entire business out of shape then. Now, many watchmakers and brands are more resilient to market turbulence than ever. The chances that there is a mass-extinction event, something on the scale of the Quartz Crisis, feels very improbable.
With the slowdown though, many indies will have to return to the basics – gone are the days where watches simply sell themselves. Maybe one or two privileged brands will remain in the same position as if the market never changed, but for most, storytelling, high quality content, educational material, customer experience and service will become paramount to success. As any market shifts gears, so too will businesses.
What we are doing at EsperLuxe
We’ve responded to the current market conditions by focusing on the basics that brought us success well before independent watchmaking was as popular as it is now. Our customer experience remains the same whether the markets are high or low. Now a multi-generational affair, we’ve always focused on showcasing high-quality creations coupled with impeccable service whether buying, selling, or searching for a timepiece.
More than ever, we’re also exploring new watchmakers and brands, searching for opportunities to collaborate and release limited edition timepieces like we did with Kudoke or building new retail partnerships as we announced recently with Felipe Pikullik. We continue to lean into the value of high-quality educational material, both in the form of articles as well as videos on our YouTube channel.
There’s some great stuff out there, watchmakers yet to be discovered and current brands and watchmakers that are coming into their own. We’re very excited for what’s to come in the coming months. The current market gives you, the collector, an opportunity to explore more than ever and we’re here to help guide you on the journey.
Don’t be a stranger. We can be reached via email at concierge@esperluxe.com or give us a call +1-781-269 5569.